哈萨克斯坦对外贸易与产业结构关联分析

Study on the Correlation Between Foreign Trade and Industrial Structure of Kazakhstan

产业结构和对外贸易是经济领域研究的两个热点问题。二者协调发展是一国或地区经济平稳、健康发展的重要保证。通过运用VAR理论、协整检验和格兰杰因果分析对哈萨克斯坦对外贸易和产业结构的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:哈萨克斯坦对外贸易增长是第一产业和第三产业增长的原因,说明这些年来哈萨克斯坦对外贸易的增长促进了第一产业和第三产业整体的竞争能力。第二产业的增长是对外贸易增长的原因,说明第二产业是哈萨克斯坦是拉动外贸的主动力。

The industrial structure and foreign trade are two hot issues in the economic research field. The coordination of both is an important guarantee for a stable and healthy economy development. This paper uses the VAR theory, co-integration test and Granger causality analysis to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and industrial structure of Kazakhstan. The empirical results show that Kazakhstan＇s foreign trade growth is the driving force of the development of its first and third industries, which explains that Kazakhstan foreign trade growth promotes the competitiveness of the first and the third industries. The second industry growth is the reason for the increase of the foreign trade, which means that the second industry is the main force to promote the Kazakhstan＇s foreign trade.