河南省入境旅游与经济增长关系的动态计量分析及实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Inbound Tourism and the Economic Growth in Henan Province

为定量研究出河南省的入境旅游情况和河南地区GDP之间的关系,首先把相关的河南国际旅游外汇收入情况和地区GDP总值进行相应处理;其次,运用计量经济学中时间序列分析法、协整分析和Granger因果检验,对1982至2010年河南省GDP和河南省国际旅游外汇收入的关系进行动态计量分析。计量结果显示,河南省的地区GDP和入境旅游业之间存在较为稳定的协整关系,入境旅游收入增加1个点,可以带动区域GDP增加0.2525个百分点;河南省GDP的增长对入境旅游业的影响显著强于后者对前者的拉动作用。

In order to discuss the relationship between the inbound tourism and the economic growth in Henan province, the author analy- zes the relationship between the International Tourism Foreign Exchange revenue and the economic growth in Henan, via co - integration analysis and Granger causality test, based on the years of 1982--2010 data. The result shows that there exists a stable equilibrium rela- tionship between the inbound tourism development and the economic growth in the long term. With 1% increasing of the International Tourism Foreign Exchange revenue, GDP will increase 0. 2525%. Inbound tourism hasn＇ t promoted the economic growth of Henan e- nough.