展望数学生态学与生态模型的未来

Prospect of mathematical ecology and ecological modeling

首先简要回顾了 2 0世纪数学生态学发展的历史 ,特别是半个世纪以来在中国的发展。然后指出了生物学的进步为数学生态学的发展提供了机遇。作者列出了当前数学生态学和生态模型研究的几个热点 :( 1 )非线性动力学 ;( 2 )种群的时空动态 :包括异质种群动态 ,源 -汇理论以及种群对时、空变化的响应等 ;( 3)多样性和稳定性的关系 ;( 4)行为的动态模型 ;( 5)基于个体的模型。最后指出 ,生态学中的混沌现象 ,可能表明多年来理论生态学家寻找的种群动态及生态系统动态的一般规律根本就不存在 ;然而还原论和整体论的相互补充促进 ,可能会对 2 1世纪生态学的发展起到重要的影响。

The authers briefly review the development of ecological modeling and mathematical ecology in 20 th century.The hot spots of future studies as follows:(1)Nonlinear dynamics of population and ecosystem;(2)The spatio temporal dynamics of population,including metapopulation dynamics,source sink theory and population responses in space and time;(3)The relation between diversity and stability;(4)The dynamic models of behaviour;(5)the individual based model.The theory of chaos tells us that general law of dynamics of population and ecosystem may not exist;The methodologies both of holistism and reductionism will help ecology go to the new stage of science.