我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”战略问题研究

Strategic Research on Avoiding "Middle-Income Trap" for China

本文从国际视角综述了"中等收入陷阱"的概念、原因和基本特征等,认为落入"中等收入陷阱"主要是由于缺乏制度和科技创新,经济结构多重失衡等内在原因。本文认为,我国面临人口红利减弱和经济增长动力不协调等挑战,但也同时具备了工业化中后期经济较快增长、城镇化推进潜力大、国家和企业的创新能力逐步显现等有利条件。在上述分析的基础上,本文提出我国跨越"中等收入陷阱"阶段的时间和目标,认为只要坚定不移地推进改革开放,实现经济的持续健康发展,缩小收入分配差距等,至2020年前后即可实现这一历史性跨越。最后,本文认为,我国要顺利跨越"中等收入陷阱",需要调整经济发展战略、推动经济增长向创新驱动型转变、加快收入分配制度改革和实行新型城市化等战略。

The study summarizes the concepts,causes and characteristics of 'middle-income trap' and concludes that the root cause of languishing into 'middle-income trap' is the result of lacking in institutional and technological innovations and multiple-imbalance in economic structure. The study holds that China is facing the challenges of weakened 'demographic dividend' and uncoordinated economic stimuli but it has the advantages of rapid economic growth,drive for urbanization and improving innovation strength on levels of both the nation and the enterprises. Based on the above analysis,the study deems that China can avoid the 'middle-income trap' around 2020 with continuous efforts in reform and open-up,maintaining stable and rapid economic growth and narrowing down the income distribution gap.The study concludes that China needs to adjust its economic development strategy,focus on innovation-driven growth, speed up its income distribution reform and take 'a new model urbanization' strategy.At current stage,the present international monetary system is favorable to China as long as it's stable. China doesn't have the capacity to propose a totally new system and should recently