产业结构变迁与就业路径演变实证分析——以甘肃省为例

The Empirical Analysis of Industrial Structure Progress and Employment Path Evolution——Take Gansu Province as an Example

采用双对数线性模型,分析了甘肃省三次产业的就业弹性;通过三次产业结构偏离度分析得出,未来就业空间最大的是第二产业,其次是第三产业,第一产业的就业空间最小,并且第一产业存在着大量富余的劳动力需要转移;产业结构与就业结构的协调性系数表明,甘肃省产业结构与就业结构协同性较差,这样的产业结构不能为就业结构提供充裕的就业空间,相应的劳动力就业也不能充分发挥其作为生产要素增加产值和优化结构的功能。最后,分析结论并提出了政策建议。

We have analyzed the employment elasticity of the three industries by using double logarithmic linear models in Gansu Province;The degree of deviation indicators points out that the second industry employment space is Maximum in the future,tertiary industry is secondly,primary industry is the last,there are a large number of surplus labor need to be transferred in the first industry;The coordination indicates that Gansu industrial structure is poor and this industrial structure can not provide ample employment space,The labor also can not fully play its function as an increase in output value and optimize the structure of the factors of production.Finally,we analysis the conclusions and make policy recommendations.