美国持续低利率政策对中国货币政策的影响分析

The Impact of Sustainable Low Interest Rate Policy in the United States on China's Monetary Policy

自2008年12月以来,美国一直采取低利率与量化宽松搭配的货币政策模式。本文基于中国货币政策的运行环境和实施效应两方面,对美国持续低利率政策的溢出效应进行了检验,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果证实美国长期较低的联邦基金利率对于中国货币政策这两方面都会产生一定的影响,并且这种影响随着时间的推移在逐步加大。所以,中国的货币政策应在充分考虑国内外经济环境的基础上适时调整。

Since December 2008, the United States has continued to adopt a monetary policy pattern of near-zero interest rates accompanied with Quantitative Easing （QE）. This paper studies the spillover effect of the United States sustainable low interest rates on China＇s monetary policy. It respectively examines the effect from operating environment effect and implementation effect of the monetary policy. Through Impulse Response Functions （IRF） and equations decomposition, the results confirm that the U. S. long-term low levels of the federal funds rate had some effect on China＇s economic environment and the implementation of monetary policy, and the effect keeps strengthening over time. Therefore, for China＇s monetary policy, it＇s essential to take adjustment on the basis of fully considering the domestic and overseas economic environment.