二元经济结构、政府政策与城乡居民收入差距——基于中国东、中、西部地区省级面板数据的经验分析

Dual Economic Structure,Government Policies and the Urban-Rural Income Gap in China ——Empirical Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data

本文基于1997年以来的省级面板数据,考察了中国及其三大地区城乡居民收入差距演变的影响因素。结果表明,就全国而言,1997年以来二元经济结构的弱化和城市偏向的财政政策的改善起到了缩小城乡居民收入差距的作用,而城市化和工业化进程的加快、对外开放的深化以及目前城市严格而农村宽松的人口政策则扩大了城乡差距。同时,由于中国各地区经济发展水平迥异,各项因素对三大地区的城乡差距的影响也存在很大差异。加快城市化的政策有利于平抑东、中部地区的城乡差距,而不利于缩小西部地区的城乡差距;对外开放的深化显著地拉大了东部地区的城乡差距,但这种作用在中、西部地区尚不明显;财政政策城市偏向程度的弱化对平抑西部地区的城乡差距起到了积极作用,而在东、中部地区则相反;此外,目前的教育政策仅对平抑西部地区的城乡差距起到了比较显著的积极影响。并据此提出了当前缩小城乡居民收入差距的政策建议。

This paper aims to investigate the changes in urban-rural income gap and the determinants during the period of 1997--2010 in China and its three regions. After estimating the fixed-effects model of the urban-rural income differential equation, the empirical results show that, at the national level, the weakening of dual economic structure and urban-biased financial policy have narrowed the income gap between urban and rural residents, while the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization, deepening of opening-up and the urban-relaxed and rural-strict population policies have widened this income gap since 1997. Meanwhile, as the level of economic development varies from area to area in China, various factors have played different roles on this income gap in different areas in China. Policy to speed up urbanization progress has positive effects in narrowing this income disparity in Eastern and Central China, but in Western China the situation is on the contrary. Deepening of opening-up has widened this income gap in Eastern China,but this role is not significant in Western and Central China. Weakening of urban-biased financial policy is helpful for narrowing this income disparity in Western China, but it＇s just the opposite in Eastern and Central China. In addition, the current education policy has played a significant positive role only in Western China. Hereby, some policy recommendations are proposed to narrow current urban-rural income gap.