基于不确定层次分析法的管道第三方破坏风险评价

Risk Assessment of the Third Party Damage on Pipelines Based on UTAHP

由于管道第三方破坏风险因素具有模糊性和随机性,在传统层次分析法中风险因素间相对重要程度难以用准确数值来判断,故提出采用区间数来描述专家对于风险因素间相对重要程度的评判,并采用不确定层次分析法来计算管道第三方破坏风险因素权重。借鉴肯特管道风险评价方法来进行管道第三方破坏风险评价。最后,以某输气管道为例进行第三方破坏风险评价,评价结果符合工程实际。

As factors of the third party damage on pipelines are of fuzziness and randomness, it is difficult to decide the relative sig- nificance between these factors with accurate value by means of traditional analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Therefore, interval numbers are adopted to describe experts＇ evaluation on the relative significance between the risk factors and uncertain type analytic hierarchy process （UTAHP） is employed to calculate the weight of the risk factors in the third party damage of pipelines. Muhlbauer pipeline risk assessment method works as a model and a gas pipeline works as an example in the risk assessment. The result is in accordance with the enKineering practice.