我国经济结构支持系统的SD模型及系统仿真

The SD Model and Simulation of China’s Economic Structure Coupling Mechanism

基于投入产出理论,构建了我国经济结构支持系统的SD模型,将产业结构、国内生产总值结构、投资结构、消费结构、收入分配结构等主要经济结构纳入模型之中,反映了各结构在经济系统中扮演的主要角色和相互影响关系,能够为经济结构调整、经济发展方式转变等政策的制定提供理论支持。根据模型仿真结果,提高消费占国内生产总值的比例(投资总量紧缩)虽然会影响短期内的经济增长,但不会影响我国长期的经济增长趋势;提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比例,对消费水平提升和短期内的经济增长具有很强的促进作用。

The study, based on the input--output theory, sets up SD model for China＇s economic structure, which includes industrial structure, GDP structure, investment Capital structure, consumption structure, income distribution and so on. This model reflects the role played by and the relationship between the substructures in the economic system. It is thus expected to provide a theoretical basis for the economic structure adjustment and policy-making. According to the results of model simulation, although the increasing consumption ratio in GDP （total investment contraction） affects the short-term economic growth, it will not influence the long-term growth; increasing the ratio of remuneration in primary distribution plays a decisive part in promoting consumption and boosting short-term economy.