宏观经济波动与服务业结构变动的相关分析

The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Cyclical Fluctuations and Changes In Service Structure

随着我国经济发展,服务业在推动经济增长、优化产业结构中起着越来越重要的作用,宏观经济变化与服务业结构变动的关系也越来越密切。为深入揭示宏观经济波动指标与服务业结构变动之间的内在联系,本文基于改革开放以来的中国宏观统计数据,运用Moore结构变化值、HP滤波方法、格兰杰因果检验等定量方法,系统分析宏观经济波动与服务业结构变动的相关性。分析表明,服务业结构变动是影响宏观经济波动的重要原因,并且其影响是中期的,并不具有短期和长期影响。服务业结构变动主要来源于服务业内部增长率的波动。运用VAR模型分析表明,服务业内部增长率波动与宏观经济波动之间存在四条传导途径,其中以房地产为枢纽的途径作用明显。总的来说,服务业结构变动对宏观经济波动具有中期影响,政府应当通过控制传导途径以平抑服务业结构变动对宏观经济波动的影响。

The services sector is an important source of Chinese economic fluctuations, this paper focuses on the correlation between the macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation and changes in service structure. The analy-sis shows that the change of service structure is one reason of the macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations, rather than the reverse, but it only has the medium - term impact. The change of STA comes mainly from the volatil-ity growth rate of the service sector. The model VAR shows that there are four ways that services impacts macroeconomic, but only one works.