我国化学工业二氧化碳排放影响因素研究

Study on Influence Factors for Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China′s Chemical Industry with LMDI Method

本文基于因素分解方法(LMDI)研究了影响我国化学工业1996-2007年间二氧化碳排放量变化的关键因素,包括部门能源消费、化学工业化石能源比例、化石能源结构、能源碳排放强度、经济增长、化学工业产出比例、化学工业的部门结构、能耗强度等8个因素。研究结果表明了经济活动和能耗强度下降是影响中国化学工业1996-2007年二氧化碳排放的两个最重要的因素,能耗强度的下降明显减少了二氧化碳的排放,但仍无法抵消经济增长导致的二氧化碳排放量的增加;化学工业能源结构的优化对二氧化碳的排放起到了减量作用;能源结构及具体部门结构效应对碳排量的影响最小。

Based on LMDI（ the Log - Mean Divisia Index） , this paper studies the key factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions in chemical industry of China from 1996 to 2007. These factors include energy consumption of departments, the proportion of fossil energy, fossil energy structure, carbon emission intensity of energy, economic growth, output proportion of chemical industry, the department structure of the chemical industry and energy consumption intensity. The results show that the economic growth and the decline in energy intensity are the most important factors which influ- ence the carbon dioxide emissions of chemical industry in China from 1996 to 2007. The decline in energy intensity sig- nificantly reduces carbon dioxide emissions, but it is still unable to offset the increase in carbon dioxide emissions caused by economic growth. The optimization of the energy structure of the chemical industry can reduce the carbon di- oxide emissions; Energy structure and specific sectors structural effects have minimal impact on carbon emissions.