中国货币政策调整的依据和有效性——基于2001—2012年样本数据的实证分析

The Reference and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Adjustment in China——Based on the Data from 2001 to 2012

明晰货币政策调整依据,评价货币政策调整效果,对于提高货币政策的针对性与有效性具有重要意义。论文在设定分析时点的基础上,将货币供应量、居民消费价格指数以及上证综合指数纳入统一框架,构建向量分布自回归滞后模型,并根据2001—2012年中国的相关统计数据进行实证分析。结果表明:中国货币政策调整以居民消费价格指数为主要依据,兼顾股票价格指数水平;中国货币政策调整是有效的,但存在时滞;中国商品市场与股票市场之间是相通的,当中国人民银行调整货币政策时,货币资金可能在两个市场间转移,从而在一定程度上削弱了货币政策的有效性。

It is very important to find the reference and to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy adjustment. On the basis of setting up the time point of analyzing, this paper constructs a testing model to do an empirical analysis on the sample data of monetary supply, consumer price index and Shanghai composite index. Based on the data from 2001 to 2012, the empirical results show that： Chinag monetary policy adjustment is mainly based on CPI and takes into account the level of stock price index; Chinag monetary policy adjustment is effective, but the time lag is exist. Because the commodity market and stock market are interlinked, when the Chinese central bank adjusts the monetary policy, the money capitals may be transferred between two markets, that could weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy to a certain extent. Based on those factors, some policy proposals are put forward.