基于生态足迹理论的区域可持续发展能力评估模型

Regional Sustainability Risk Evaluation Model Based on Ecological Footprint Theory

针对传统生态足迹模型统计数据获取困难及计算结果的单一性,考虑了传统生态足迹模型中参数的不确定性,提出了表征区域可持续发展能力的负生态足迹指数概念,利用该指数将区域可持续发展能力水平分为强可持续发展、弱可持续发展、不可持续发展和严重不可持续发展4个等级。在Matlab平台上构建了区域可持续发展能力评估模型,可提供丰富的统计信息来直观地表达区域的可持续发展能力。应用该模型评估汉江流域可持续发展能力,结果表明汉江流域达到Ⅰ级发展水平的概率为0,达到Ⅱ级发展水平的概率为0.54%。

To overcome the difficulty of getting data and the simplicity of the result for the traditional ecological footprint model, the parameter uncertainty of the traditional ecological footprint model was considered, and the concept of negative ecological footprint index and region sustainable development ability were presented, which represented the re gional sustainability. Then the regional sustainability was divided into 4 grades as strongly sustainable development, weakly sustainable development, unsustainable development and seriously unsustainable development. Finally, the regional sustainability risk evaluation model was established on the platform of the Matlab. The results of case study in Hanjiang Basin indicated that the probability of Hanjiang Basin sustainability at I grade was 0, and the probability at Ⅱgrade was 0.54%.