碳价格对低碳基荷发电技术相对竞争力的影响评估

Impact of Carbon Pricing on Relative Competitiveness of Low-carbon Base Load Power Generation Technology

根据国际能源机构(IEA)的评估标准选出合适的低碳基荷发电技术,分析了引入碳价格后发电成本和温室气体排放强度的变动情况,并研究碳定价机制对各发电技术相对竞争力的影响。结果表明,核电成本的排放量最低,竞争优势最大;太阳能热利用成本的排放量最高,相对竞争力最小。目前依靠碳捕捉与封存技术(CCS)的传统煤粉蒸汽锅炉发电(PFcoal/CCS)、联合循环发电系统(IGCC/CCS)、联合循环燃气涡轮(CCGT/CCS)技术是有风险的策略。

This article selects the reasonable base load power generation technology based on the criteria of the Inter- national Energy Agency （lEA）, analyzes the levelized cost of electricity （LCOE） and greenhouse gas emissions intensity （EI） by introducing carbon pricing, and further studies the impact of the carbon pricing mechanism on the relative corn petitiveness ok power generation technologies. The results show that among all selected technology, the nuclear power, with the lowest cost and emissions, has the greatest competitive advantage; the solar thermal, with the highest cost and emissions, has the smallest relative competitiveness; in addition, there is a certain risk to develop the pulverized fuel （PF）, integrated gasification combined cycle （IGCC） and combined-cycle gas turbine （CCGT） technology combined with carbon capture and storage （CCS） technology in the current development stage.