对中东欧转轨20年的几点看法——以保加利亚为案例的分析

Opinions on 20 years of CEE's transition:Bulgarian case

保加利亚自1989年转轨以来,基本建立了市场经济体制和西方三权分立的议会民主政体。保20多年来的转轨进程,以1997年保民盟政府上台为分水岭,大体可以分为前后两个阶段。前一阶段为转轨带来的动荡期,后一阶段为转轨后的稳定期。保的转轨由于存在诸多问题而远未结束。保加利亚与波兰转轨效果的差异主要由两国转轨的初始条件不同造成。中东欧国家转轨正反两方面的经验凸显中国渐进改革道路的正确性。

Since the 1989 transition,market economyand parliamentary democracy were established in Bulgaria.Twenty years of transformation process can be roughly divided into two stages.In 1997,when SDS came to power,as the boundary line between the first and the second period of Bulgarian transition.The former is turbulent that transition brought with,the latter is stable post- transition period.Of cause,Bulgaria 's transition is far from over because there are many problems should be solved.The effect difference of the transition in Bulgaria and Poland are mainly caused by different initial conditions of the transition of the two countries.The positive and negative aspects of the transition of Central and Eastern European countries highlight the correctness of Chinese gradual reform.