中国经济复杂度及其演变:基于1987年至2007年的投入产出表测度

An Input-output-based Assessment of China’s Economic Complexity and Evolution

本文基于平均波及步数法(Average Propagations Lengths),利用1987年至2007年投入产出表数据,测度了中国经济复杂度及其演变。研究结果表明:(1)1987年至2007年期间,中国经济复杂度总体显著提高,产业链不断延长,复杂度指数(Complexity Index)由1987年的2.69,上升至2007年的3.63,上升了34.9%,但是在1997年至2002年期间由于国有企业兼并重组等带来的结构性变革,经济复杂度略微下降;(2)能源矿产开采业等部门在中国产业链中的基础地位更加强化,而批发和零售贸易业、房地产及社会服务业等作为产业链末端部门,对其他部门的后向拉动效果更为广泛;(3)中国不同地区经济复杂度及演变呈现显著的差别,东部地区的广东、浙江、江苏等省区经济复杂度明显要高于中西部地区的江西、湖南、陕西、新疆等省区,且上升速度更为明显。

The paper uses average propagation lengths to study the complexity of China＇s economy from a set of input-output data in the period 1987-2007 and finds that 1987-2007 saw a 34.9% overall increase in complexity index or an increase in the complexity of China＇ s production structure though 1997-2002 saw a slight CI decrease as a result of the reform of the state-owned enterprise. Energy and mineral resources exploitation industries can be viewed as being situated at the beginning of production chains, and wholesale and retail trade industry, housing and social services industry can be viewed as being situated at the end of production chains. The complex- ity index differs from region to region. The economy in eastern region is in fact more complex. For example, the economy of Guangdong province is more complex. The economy in western region （e.g. Shanxi and Xinjiang） tends to be less complex.