农村正规金融、非正规金融与农户收入增长效应的地区性差异实证研究——基于农村固定点调查1986-2009年微观面板数据的分析

An Empirical Research on Rural Regular Financial,Informal Finance and Farmer Income Growth Effects of the Country’s Regional Gap——Based on the Rural Point Survey in 1986-2009 Micro Panel Data Analysis

借鉴Cobb Douglas生产函数,建立了农户信贷投入与农民人均纯收入增长的多元线性回归模型,基于全国、东部、中部、西部地区1986-2009年的微观面板数据(Panel Data),运用个体变系数固定效应回归模型对全国、东部、中部、西部地区农户信贷投入与农户人均收入增长之间的关系进行分析。结果显示:农户正规金融的信贷和非正规金融的借贷的投入与农户收入增长效应,不同地区存在较大的差异,东部地区金融机构的信贷资金促进了农户收入的增长,而中西部地区却是负效应。民间借贷对东中西部农户的收入均为负效应。农户生产性固定资产投资对收入的增长有显著的促进作用,但也表明农村金融在信贷资金转换为投资配置效率上是低下的,提高信贷资金的使用效率和兼顾公平的不同地区经济协调发展的战略,是今后农村金融体系改革和金融产品创新的关键问题。在此基础上,提出了农村金融体制改革的相关政策和建议。

This paper uses Cobb. Douglas production function to establish a multiple linear regression model of farmer credit input and farmers＇ per capita net income growth and draws on the east, central and west regions＇ microscopic panel Data （Pooled Data） in 1986- 2009 to analyze the relationship between farmer credit input and farmers＇ per capital income growth in the whole country, east region, central region and west region through individual variable coefficient fixed effects regression model. The result shows that the effect of formal financial credit and farmers＇ informal finance lending on farmers＇ income growth varies from region to region, with eastern financial institutions playing a role of promoting farmers＇ income growth while mid-west financial institutions playing an opposite role. Private lending plays a negative effect on the income of farmers in the east, central and west regions. Farmers productive investment in fixed assets plays a significant role in promoting their income, indicating that the rnral financial funds for investment in the conversion of the allocation efficiency is low and that improving the credit efficiency in the use of funds with due consideration to the fair and coordinated development of different regions is the key solution to the future rural financial system reform and financial product innovation. Based on this, the paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions on the rural financial system reform.