变权重组合改进模型应用于中期电力负荷的预测

The Application of Improved Variable Weight Combination Method in Predicting the Medium-term Electric Load

对变权重组合预测理论进行了扩展和改进,并以某经济快速发展地区的历史电力负荷数据为实例,运用常规电力负荷预测方法、改进后的变权重组合方法对电力负荷进行预测和计算分析.预测结果表明了变权重组合改进预测法的可行性,有效提高了中期电力负荷预测的精度和可信度.

The utilization of the variable weight combined prediction theory is furthered and improved. The traditional power load data in rapidly developing areas are chosen as examples where the conventional methods and the improved variable weight combined prediction method to predict the power load are compared, the load forecasting results are analyzed and calculated. The results prove that the variable weight combined prediction method can improve the precision and reliability of the medium-term power load forecasting.