我国研究生教育区域结构外部协调性之实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Coordination between the Structure of Graduate Education and Regional Socio-economic Development

本研究通过建立基于本科教育区域结构、政治、经济、文化、科技和人口六大因素的联立方程来测量我国研究生教育区域结构外部协调性,同时运用系统动力学的计量方法,预测我国研究生教育区域结构外部协调性的发展趋势,最后构建基于观测样本的统计控制图对不协调程度进行判别。实证研究结果表明:2009年我国研究生教育显著超前于区域经济社会发展的省市有北京、四川、陕西、甘肃、贵州和云南;研究生教育显著滞后于区域经济社会发展的省市有天津、浙江、江西、山东、河南、上海、广东和河北;其他省市未出现显著的不协调状态。从长期来看,我国研究生教育区域结构整体外部协调性将收敛于协调状态。

A system model that includes the structure of undergraduate education and social,economic,cultural,technical and demographic factors of specific regions is used to measure the coordination between graduate education and regional socio-economic development.The trend of coordination is predicted by dynamic system econometrics and the degree of non-coordination is determined with a statistic control chart based on samples observed.Our findings indicate that,in 2009,the development of graduate education exceeded the social and economic development in Beijing,Sichuan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Guizhou and Yunnan,while it fell behind the socio-economic development in Tianjin,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Shandong,Henan,Shanghai,Guangdong and Hebei.From a long-term point of view,a region＇s structure of graduate education and its socio-economic state tend to keep in coordination.