内蒙古初冬两次寒潮天气过程对比分析

Comparative Analyses of Two Cold Wave Weather Processes of the Early Winter in Inner Mongolia

文章利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品,对2009年10月31日至11月3日和2009年11月8—17日,在内蒙古自治区大部地区发生的两次寒潮天气过程,进行了分析和诊断,分别从高空强冷平流下沉入侵引起流场变化,导致冷空气爆发,地面配合的系统及冷高压的变化角度上,对这两次寒潮天气过程进行了一些对比分析,结果表明:这两次寒潮天气从类型、影响系统、维持时间以及能够达到寒潮标准的降温影响范围都有所不同。另外,欧洲中心数值预报产品在这两次过程中预报效果较好,说明做好数值预报产品的释用研究,也是提高重大天气预报质量的有效途径之一。

Abstract： From October 31 to November 3, 2009 and from November 8 to November 17, 2009, two cold wave weather processes appeared respectively in the most of the area of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Based on conventional weather data and numerical forecast products, using synoptic analysis and diagnosis method, from the point of view of strong cold advection sinking invasion of upper air causing the change of flow field, and leading to the outbreak of cold air, changes of the coordinating surface system and the cold high pressure, two cold wave weather processes were analyzed comparatively. The results show that： weather type, influence system, maintaining time and cooling coverage capable of reaching the criterion of cold wave of the two cold waves were different. In addition, the forecast effect of ECMWF＇s numerical forecast products was better in the cold wave processes. The deeper applied research and interpretation to numerical forecast products are one of the effective ways in improving the important weather forecast quality.