农村基础设施投资对农村居民消费影响的定量研究

Effects of Rural Infrastructure Investment on Consumption of Rural Resident:A Quantitative Research

我国居民消费尤其是农村地区居民消费对国民经济的拉动程度不足,促进GDP增长,扩大内需,必须考虑如何启动农村消费市场。学术界对影响农村居民消费的因素进行了大量研究,但少有文献将重点投向农村基础设施方面。本文将基于26个省份2000-2010年的面板数据,构建多方程多变量的SUR模型来定量考察农村基础设施投资对于农村居民消费的影响程度。通过实证分析得出结论:总体上农村基础设施投资对消费具有促进作用,对消费呈现负向影响的基础设施大多为社会基础设施。

Consumption have not boosted the national economy so much especially in rural areas. In order to promote growth of GDP and expand the domestic demand of the country, we should consider how to start up the rural consumer market. The academic circles have done a lot of researches on the factors affecting the consumption of rural residents, but few focusing on rural infrastructure. Based on panel data of 26 provinces, this paper constructed many equation multivariate SUR model to study how rural infrastructure investment will affect rural residents consumption quantitatively. Through the empirical analysis this paper concludes：overall rural infrastructure investment helps promote consumption; and infrastructure which affect consumption negatively are mostly social ones