交通基础设施、交通运输业与区域经济增长——基于省域数据的空间面板模型研究

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China——Based on Spatial Econometrics of Panel Data with Provincial Data

本文采用空间面板模型检验了交通业发展与区域经济增长的关系,研究结果表明:中国地区间的经济增长在1997～2010年具有明显的空间相关性;铁路建设和公路建设对经济增长带动作用较为明显,公路建设中高速公路、一级公路、二级公路、三级公路和四级公路对区域经济增长的带动作用依次递减;铁路运输业比公路运输业对经济增长的作用更加明显;高速公路密度提高一个百分点可带动经济增长约0.034个百分点,铁路密度提高一个百分点可带动经济增长约0.002个百分点;2001～2010年间交通基础设施存量的增加年均带动经济增长0.78个百分点,约为经济增长率的8%。

This paper analyses the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China by Spatial econometrics of panel data.The result of empirical study show： there was obvious spatial autocorrelation been in China’s economic development during years 1997~2010;The railway and road construction had obvious positive impact to economy in China.Highway,secondary roads,tertiary roads,and four of the road on the role of regional economic growth is decreasing;Railway transport to economic growth is more obvious than road transport;A percentage Highway density improve about 0.034% economic growth,and railway density is 0.002%;The addition of the stock of transport infrastructure could promote 0.78% economic growth from 2001 to 2010,and contribute about 8% to annual economic growth rate.