经济周期与股市波动传导机制的概念模型构建

Research on Business cycle and the stock market fluctuation and its transmission models

经济周期是宏观经济发展的正常现象,不同的经济周期阶段对宏观调控的要求不一样。在一个整体框架下研究分析影响经济周期的内生因素和外生因素有利于做出正确的宏观决策,来保证国民经济的长期稳定发展。论文回顾了经济周期的发展历程,概述了国内外学者对经济周期的验证及其影响因素分析的结果,研究了经济周期的传导机制,并重点探讨了经济周期与股市波动的关系。最后,结合当前宏观经济环境不确定性因素日趋复杂重要的背景,在对不确定性相关研究综述的基础上,构建了我国经济周期与股市波动传导机制的概念模型。

The business cycle is normal phenomenon in macro economic development. Different stages of business cycle require different ways of macroeconomic regulation and control. The research and analysis influence of the business cycle endogenous factors and exogenous factors make for the right macroscopic decision, so as to ensure the long-term stable development of national economy. This paper reviewed the development course of business cycle, and its influence factors, and then summarized the transmission mechanism of business cycle and its relationship between the stock market fluctuation. Finally, combining the current background that macro economic environment uncertainty gets more and more complicated and important, on the basis of uncertainty reviewed, this paper tried to construct conceptual model of transmission mechanism between business cycle and the stock market volatility in China.