基于图模型的流域跨界水污染冲突研究

RESEARCH ON TRANSBOUNDARY WATER POLLUTION CONFLICTS IN BASIN BASED ON GRAPH MODEL

水资源短缺和水污染是我国面临的重要资源与环境问题。流域行政区划的分割使水污染可以由上游行政区向下游行政区进行转移,造成跨界水污染冲突。解决冲突的图模型是一种基于非合作博弈理论的冲突分析方法,该方法在策略层面对局中人行为进行分析,寻求冲突的均衡或者冲突解。最后,将解决冲突的图模型方法应用于太湖流域跨界水污染冲突,选取太湖流域跨界水污染冲突的两个实例进行研究。经分析,得到冲突潜在的均衡状态。结果表明,中央政府同时采取激励策略与控制策略、江苏省采取部分削减污染物排放策略和浙江省采取沟通协调策略是一种最稳定状态;且杭州和绍兴采取联合治污、两地排污企业服从管理不偷排污染物成为最终稳定状态。在实例研究之后,对图模型展开进一步的讨论。解决冲突的图模型方法对于流域跨界水污染冲突分析具有较好的效果。

Nowadays water resource is relatively lacking in China and water pollution becomes serious gradually,though economic progress has been made by the past thirty years.Thus,it is the time to solve these problems for a wonderful tomorrow.The basin integrity and the administrative separation have made it possible that water pollution shifts from the upstream administrative region to the downstream administrative region.As a result of that,transboundary water pollution conflicts in basin may appear.In China,traditional extensive economic patterns often don’t take care of environment.Transboundary water pollution conflicts usually occur between different regions in basin.The graph model for conflict resolution is a method of conflict analysis on the basis of non-cooperative game theory.The method analyzes the behaviors of the players involved certain conflicts at the strategic level,so that the equilibrium or resolution of the conflict can be achieved by the graph model.The graph model analysis process considers the decision participants,their decision options,and their relative preferences on the feasible states when modeling and analyzing the conflict.All feasible states and states transitions including unilateral improvements for every player must be picked out before stability analysis.Then assessing the stability of every state for every decision-maker under various stability definitions is necessary so that the potential equilibrium states can be achieved.There are five usual stability concepts in the graph model：Nash stability,General metarationality,Symmetric metarationality,Sequential stability and Limited move stability.Different stability concepts are based on different hypothesis.In this study,the graph model for conflict resolution was applied to the transboundary water pollution conflict in the Taihu Lake Basin as a case,and an actual example of water pollution conflict between Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province and another example in Jiangsu province were picked up to prove the effect of the graph model for conflict resolution in analyzing the transboundary water pollution conflict.Firstly,players and their options should be identified from the conflict.Then their relative preference on the feasible states could be gained.Lastly,stability analysis was carried out.After the analysis,the potential equilibrium states of the conflict were worked out.The results showed that there was not only one potential equilibrium state.One was actual existing state before the given time.The other equilibrium state was such a condition in which the central government carried out incentive strategies and control strategies at the same time and Jiangsu Province adopted the strategy that pollution emission was partially reduced and Zhejiang Province resorted to communication and coordination strategy.The similar result could be gained in the transboundary water pollution conflict between Hangzhou and Shaoxing.With the help of case study,some further discussion on the graph model for conflict resolution was carried out.Generally speaking,the graph model for conflict resolution is an easy-to use and flexible method to study strategic conflict,because the method need not so much information when modeling and analyzing conflicts.It turns out that the graph model for conflict resolution works efficiently on the transbounday water pollution conflicts.