中国蔬菜市场回顾与展望

Review of China′s Vegetable Market Situation and Its Future Prospect

近年来,随着经济的快速发展,中国蔬菜市场发生了根本性变化。蔬菜生产面积不断扩大,产量不断提高,供应持续增加;蔬菜消费总量明显增加,尤其是在外就餐的蔬菜消费量增加较为迅速;蔬菜进出口量均持续增加,且出口增长快于进口增长,贸易顺差持续扩大。受蔬菜生产成本上涨等因素的推动,蔬菜市场价格总体呈上涨趋势;由于季节性波动、灾害性天气和市场信息不对称等因素,个别蔬菜品种的价格波动较为频繁。预期未来,中国蔬菜供需将继续保持稳定,但产量增速趋缓,需求继续增长;出口优势有所下降,贸易顺差趋于缩小;价格继续维持高位且波动频繁。

In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, great changes have taken place in China＇s vegetable market. Vegetable supply increased continuously for expanding planting area and increasing production. The total consumption of vegetable increased obviously, especially the consumption of outside eating increased rapidly. Vegetable imports and exports increased dramatically, at the same time, the export growth was faster than import growth, and trade surplus was expanding continually. Driven by the increase of production cost and other factors, vegetable price kept on rising generally. Prices of some kinds of vegetables fluctuated frequently due to the seasonal fluctuation, disastrous weather, the asymmetrical market information and other factors. In the future, the supply and demand of China＇s vegetable will remain stable, while vegetable yield growth is expected to slow down, and the demand will increase continuously. Export advantage is projected to decrease somewhat, and trade surplus is expected to shrink. Vegetable price will maintain high level with frequent fluctuation.