弱复苏下债市调整风险加大：责券市场一季度回顾与二季度展望

Weak recovery showing possible adjustment in bond market： review of Q1 and prospect of Q2

2013年一季度，债市资金面较上一季度有所放宽，国债收益率曲线陡峭化，政策性金融债收益率平坦化下行，信用债发行仍维持高速增长，二级市场信用债利差全面收窄，低等级债表现突出。展望二季度，经济有望保持复苏态势，通胀压力犹在，利率债存在配置价值，高等级信用债将呈震荡行情，信用利差将拓宽。

In Q1 of 2013, the fund situation in the bond market was favorable compared with last quarter while the yield curve of treasury bonds turned steeper, the yield of policy financial bonds decreased evenly, the issuance of debentures kept a high growth, the interest rate spreads of debentures in the secondary market shrank comprehensively, and the inferior bonds presented outstanding performance. For the coming Q2, the economy is expected to keep recovering and the inflation pressure would not disappear. The interest rate bonds would be appropriate for allocation, superior debentures would fluctuate and the credit spreads would expand.