基于住房分市场理论的城市住房规划研究——上海城市住房分市场动态变化驱动力研究的启示

STUDY ON URBAN HOUSING PLANNING BASED ON HOUSING SUBMARKET THEORY: EMPIRICAL EXPERIENCE FROM THE ANALYSIS ON DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGES IN HOUSING SUBMARKETS IN SHANGHAI, 1994-2005

随着社会经济体制改革的不断推进和深化,我国城市发展的动力机制、城市住房系统的运作机制也发生了深刻变化,要求我国城市规划、住房规划理论和方法与时俱进。本文构建了我国住房分市场动态变化研究的理论框架,对上海市两个案例住宅区1994至2005年住房分市场动态变化驱动力的实证研究表明:影响不同区位、不同层级城市住房分市场动态变化的供、需因素复杂多样,在不同层面上广泛地与社会、经济、环境变化、区域甚至国际发展变化的趋势、城市规划控制和土地供应等因素联系在一起。住房分市场动态变化的研究对我国市场化体制下的城市住房规划理论和方法的重构具有重要意义,也可为住房需求的评估和住房调控政策的制定提供依据。

This paper examines the driving forces of changes in housing submarkets in Shanghai within a framework of submarket. The empirical results affirm that the changes in housing submarkets at differing levels in different neighborhoods are driven by a complex and dynamic interaction between housing supply and housing demand factors. The submarket analytical framework can be used to target submarkets and household groups for better match between different household groups and housing clusters in urban China over time, and may potentially contribute to the assessment of the need for affordable housing and the policy formation of a workable implementation mechanism to ensure the provision of affordable housing in urban China.