市场经济条件下的中国啤酒业发展历程与实证分析

The Development and Empirical Analysis of China's Beer Industry Under the Conditions of Market Economy

中国啤酒行业在最近20年取得了巨大的发展。2011年中国的啤酒产量已接近5000万千升,连续10年占据全球的榜首地位。未来啤酒行业将会如何发展、其发展的过程中将会受到哪些方面的影响,是整个啤酒行业的各个生产企业以及相关投资者普遍关心的问题。以1992年到2011年为时间跨度,从宏观发展、地域竞争和替代品角度对以上问题进行分析,通过线性回归和时间序列模型探讨中国啤酒产量与实际人均消费水平的关系,并尝试预测未来中国的啤酒产量。

Great evolution has been achieved by Chinese beer industry for the latest score years.The production of beer in China has been second to none ever since 2002,and was closed to fifty million kiloliters in 2011.Appreciating such promotion,the whole Chinese beer industry and stake holders are always wondering where Chinese beer industry will head for and what significant effects can have impact on its direction.As a result,this essay aims at unveiling the questions through the perspective of macro-development,zone competition and substitutes with relevant statistics dating from 1992 to 2011.In the end,this essay also tries to explain the relationship between the production of beer and actual average consumption of Chinese and to predict the beer production of Chinese in the future by means of linear regression and time-series analysis.