北京新医改方案下病人就诊支出预测的仿真方法

Simulation Method of Patients’ Treatment Expenditure Forecast under New Medical Reform Program in Beijing

目的:通过研究北京市医药分开试点方案对医生、病人和医院的影响,对病人就诊支出进行预测。方法:采用复杂适应系统仿真方法,构建病人单次和长期就诊支出的仿真模型。结果:病人就诊支出受自身经济能力、医生行为、自身行为和医院就诊人次四方面因素的影响。结论:新医改方案下,仿真为病人就诊支出的预测提供了一种便捷工具。

Objective： To study the impact of Beijing service-drug separation pilot program on doctors, patients and hospitals to forecast patients＇ treatment expenditure. Methods： Using complex adaptive system simulation method to build a simulation model of treatment expenditure of patients with single and long-tenn. Results： Patients＇treatment expenditure is affected by their own economic capacity, physician behavior, their own behavior and hospitals＇ treatment amount. Conclusion： Under new medical reform program, simu[ation method provides a convenient tool to forecast patients＇ treatment expenditure.