中国的刘易斯转折点到来了吗?——基于农业部门工资决定的视角

Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? Based on Wage Determination of Agricultural Sector

文章从刘易斯增长模型的经典著作入手,廓清刘易斯模型的关键假说,以农业部门工资决定原则变化的独特视角,即农业部门工资和劳动边际生产率的关系研究中国的刘易斯转折点。研究发现:中国经济整体上已经到达刘易斯第一转折点,但是研究还发现经济发展中存在不平衡性,东部发达地区已经接近刘易斯第二转折点(即商业化点),中西部大部分地区已经越过刘易斯第一转折点(即短缺点),西部少数欠发达地区还没有到达刘易斯第一转折点。

This paper begins with Lewis＇s classic writings and those of Fei and Ranis to clarify certain assumptions of Lewis growth model.This paper researches Chinese Lewis turning point from wage determination of agricultural sector that is relationship between wage and marginal productivity of labor. The results show that Chinese economy as a whole has reached the first Lewis turning point,but there exist imbalances among regional development：the developed provinces are approaching the Lewis second turning point （i.e., commercialization point）;Central and western provinces have passed the Lewis first turning point （i.e., shortage point）;while a few less developed western provinces have not reached the Lewis first turning point yet.