中国金融发展的分布动态演进：1978-2008年——基于非参数估计方法的实证研究

Distribution Dynamic Evolution of Financial Development in China

本文描述了中国金融发展的空间格局和演变态势,对于解决金融发展差距不断拉大这一问题至关重要。采用了Kernel密度估计和马尔可夫链相结合的方法,精确地描述了不同地区金融发展的分布动态演进。研究发现,东中西三大地区内部金融发展水平总体上呈现扩大态势,并且中国金融发展大部分的变动发生在相邻状态中,跨状态转移发生的概率较小。在此基础上,提出了促进不同地区金融协调发展的对策建议。

Accurately characterizing the spatial pattern of China＇s financial development and the evolution trend, it is critical to solve financial development gap. The article innovatively combines the kernel density estimates and markov chain to more accurately describe the distribution dynamic evolution of China＇s financial development in the different regions. The conclusions are as follows, the overall level of the eastern region＇s, the central region＇s, the western region＇s and China＇s financial development presents a trend of increase. Most of the changes occurr in the neighboring provinces, and the probability of inter-state transition occurrence is small. Therefore, we propose the solution to narrow the gap of China＇s financial development of the different regions.