不确定条件下旅游投资决策分析方法的对比与应用

The Comparison and Application of Investment Decision-making Method for the Tourism Investment under Uncertainty

本文对比分析各种现有投资决策分析方法之后,得出基于Shackle模型的不确定条件下的旅游投资决策方法更适用于我国当前旅游投资分析的结论,同时通过蒙特卡洛仿真的方法分析了该方法的有效性。不同于基于风险的生命周期成本收益分析法,该方法不需要构建完整的收益概率模型,仅需估算收益分布范围就可以客观地对投资项目进行经济分析,因而更适用于我国当前的旅游投资决策分析。

The existing risk based Life-Cyde Cost Benefit Analysis needs adequate case data to construct the complete probability model for gain estimating. Unfortunately, there is not enough case data accumulated for the probability model construction. So, in this paper, a Shackle based tourism investment analysis method is introduced, and Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to validate the effectiveness of this analysis method. Unlike the risk based LCCBA, this method needn＇t the complete probability model construction, but only need correctly estimating the range of future gain of programs under consideration. Therefore, the Shackle based method is more suitable for current tourism investment analysis in China.