金融发展、TFP抑制与增长源泉——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

Financial development,TFP constraints and growth source——Evidence from China's provincial panel data

文章利用省际面板数据分析了金融发展与中国经济增长源泉之间的关系,结论表明,贷款规模这一众所周知的金融变量并没有对我国经济增长起到推动作用,反而起到了抑制作用,这种抑制性的产生主要是通过影响经济增长的各个源泉——资本存量、TFP和储蓄率——来实现的。稳健性检验也表明了贷款规模对我国GDP增长和TFP增长的负向影响这一结论的可靠性。综合分析可知,我们一致看好的金融手段并没有有效促进经济增长,我国的金融制度安排已经影响到了TFP的积累水平。

Using inter- provincial panel data, this article analyzes the relationship between financial development and the source of China＇ s economic growth. The results show that loan scale, the well - known financial variable, does not promote China＇ s economic growth, but restrain it. Such restraint becomes a reality by influencing the sources of economic growth - capital stock, TFP and savings rate. Robustness test suggests the reliability of negative impacts of loan scale on China＇ s GDP growth and TFP growth. Comprehensive analysis show that financial tools which we all consider good do not effectively promote economic growth. China＇ s financial institutional arrangements have influenced the accumulation level of TFP.