中国家庭资产状况及住房需求分析

Assets and Residential Demand of Chinese Households

在我国,由于微观家庭数据的缺乏,我们对中国家庭资产缺乏了解。2011年,中国家庭金融调查与研究中心对随机抽取的位于25个省、80个县、320个社区的8438户家庭进行访问,获得了中国首个关于家庭金融的微观调查数据,填补了此领域的数据空白。根据此数据,在调查时点中国家庭总资产均值为121.7万元,中位数为20.3万元。城市家庭总资产均值为247.6万元,中位数为40.5万元。同时,中国家庭资产的分布严重不均衡,仅14.30%的城市家庭与21.3%的农村家庭资产超过相应的均值。中部、西部地区家庭户均资产仅为东部地区家庭的14.2%和12.1%。房产作为家庭资产的重要组成部分,从长远来看,房价下跌是难以避免的。根据数据推算,现有城镇家庭住房的刚性需求为6459万套,城镇地区的房屋供给约为4046万套,缺口为2413万套。以目前的产能,不到两年时间就能满足现有家庭的刚性需求。就长期而言,房地产行业主要满足新增的住房需求。每年新增需求约为579万套,也只是现在房地产产能的1/3。

Due to lack of household level data, very little was known about households assets in China. In 2011, Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance （CHFS） conducted a nationally representative household survey. The completed 8438 sample households are located in 320 communities in 80 counties, both rural and urban, covering 25 provinces. According to the survey, average assets of Chinese households are 1. 217 million yuan while the median assets are only 203,000 yuan at the time of the survey. For urban regis- tered residents, the average assets are 2. 476 million yuan and the median assets are 405,000yuan. Only 14. 3% of the urban households and 21.34% of the rural households have their assets to be higher than the cor- responding averages. The average household assets in Central, Western China are only 14. 2% , 12. 1% of that in Eastern China. Housing is a very important component of household assets. It is likely that the price of hous- ing will fall in the long run. According to the data, the residential demand for housing of the current urban households is 70. 83 million units. Compared to a current supply of 40.46 million units, there are another 30. 37 million unites needed. This residential demand will be met for less than 2 years given the current build- ing capacity. Over the long term, the real estate industry is mainly to meet the incremental residential demand of about 5.79 million units annually, which is only 1/3 of the building capacity.