函件业务量的多元回归预测方法

A Multiple Regression Method for the Forecast of Letter Volume

函件业务是邮政的核心和基础业务 ,函件业务的预测对制定邮政企业发展规划具有十分重要的意义。首先介绍了影响函件业务量的主要因素 ,然后给出了建立函件业务量多元回归模型的方法 ,并用近年来的有关数据建立了函件业务量实际模型 。

Considering that letter bussiness is the core and base postal business,forecasting the letter volume is very important for the development planning of postal enterprises.This paper first analyzes the primary factors which affect the quantity of letter bussiness.Multiple regression forecast modelling of letters volume is then proposed.Practical models are established based on the data collected in recent years and the letter volume in the latest 3 years are forecasted using these models.