基于ESDA的中国省际水足迹强度的空间关联格局分析

Spatial Correlation Pattern Analysis of Water Footprint Intensity Based on ESDA Model at Provincial Scale in China

水足迹强度是一个反映水的利用效率的指标,论文在对1995—2009年中国31个省(市、区)水足迹计算的基础上(因资料所限,未考虑香港、澳门和台湾地区),利用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对15 a来各地区水足迹强度空间分布格局以及演变态势进行了分析和探讨。结果表明:①中国水足迹强度整体呈现明显的下降趋势,说明水资源的利用效率明显提高,但是区域发展并不平衡;②从全局空间分异来看,中国各地区水足迹强度呈现出正的空间相关性特征,存在着空间集聚特征,即水足迹强度高的地区相互邻接,强度低的地区相互邻接;③从局部空间分异来看,空间正相关模式(LL集聚和HH集聚)所占比例很大,且在研究年份内逐渐增加,反映出水足迹强度的LL集聚和HH集聚变得越来越显著。LL集聚主要分布在东部沿海一带,在空间上有明显的向周边扩散的趋势;HH集聚主要分布在西部地区,在空间分布上较稳定。

Water footprint intensity is an index that can comprehensively reflect the water use efficiency, this paper firstly estimated the water footprint of 31 provinces, municipalities and autono- mous regions in China （excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan due to no data） from 1995 to 2009, and the water footprint intensity was then calculated, the ESDA （Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis） model was applied to study the spatial correlation pattern and changing tendency of water footprint intensity, the results show that： 1 ） the water footprint intensity has a decreasing tendency in general which means that the water use efficience are increasing in the 15 years, but the decreasing amounts of water footprint intensity are imbalance among the 31 provinces （regions）, the regions located in the west China have a larger decreasing amount than the regions located in the east China in general. 2） From the aspect of global spatial difference, the water foot- print intensity has a positive correlation characteristics, which means that there exists a spatial cluster feature, in other words, the regions with high water footprint intensity are apt to be adja- cent to the regions with high water footprint intensity, and the regions with low water footprint intensity are apt to be adjacent to the regions with low water footprint intensity. 3） From the aspect of local spatial difference, the regions with LL （low-low） or HH （high-high） correlation pattern have a large percentage in the 31 provinces （regions） , and the number of this kind of regions are steadily increasing in the 15 years, which reflects the fact that the special cluster becomes more and more obvious, and a spillover effect of water footprint intensity may exist. Among these re- gions, the regions with LL （low-low） correlation pattern are mainly located in the eastern coast regions of China, and water footprint intensity in these regions has an obvious diffusing tendency. The regions with HH （high-high） correlation pattern are mainly located in the west China, which are steady in spatial distribution in these years.