基于ARIMA模型的中国粮食供求平衡及预测

Balance and forcast on supply and demand of China’s grain with ARIMA model

运用ARIMA模型对1949—2011年我国粮食供需平衡问题进行分析,分别建立了我国粮食生产和粮食需求的时间序列模型,由此模型对2012—2017年间我国粮食供需问题进行预测。预测结果表明,2012—2017年我国国内粮食供给将持续稳定增长,国内粮食需求呈波动增长,国内粮食生产与需求比例在99.80%～101.05%之间波动,预测2012年的国内粮食生产与需求比例为99.81%。

This paper used ARIMA model to analyze China＇s grain supply and demand balance problems from 1949 to 2011, respectively established China＇s grain production and demand time series model, and used the models to forecast the China＇s grain demand and supply quantity during the year 2012--2017. The predicted results showed that China＇s domestic grain supply would continue sustain grow, the demand would fluctuate grow, and domestic grain production and demand fluctuated between the proportion of 99.80%-101.05%, domestic grain production and demand rate would be 99.81% by 2012.