GRIP对路径选择影响的离散选择分析

Discrete Choice Analysis of Graphical Route Information Panel's Effect on Driver Route Choice Decision

探索了图形式可变情报板(GRIP)对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响.采用意向调查法(SP)获取驾驶员从两条拥堵状况不同的路径中选择路径的行为数据,采用离散选择建模方法建立估计路径选择概率的二元Logit模型,揭示驾驶员对GRIP信息的响应行为规律.GRIP提供的路径交通状况信息分别用拥堵点与分流点的距离、拥堵路径颜色来度量.调查选取上海市延安西路立交前实际存在的一块GRIP,SP问卷为驾驶员构造了起终点之间含有两条替换路径的假想出行情境,借助SPSS软件对采集的行为数据进行建模.分析表明,GRIP信息会影响驾驶员的路径选择行为,不同的信息内容对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响是不同的,驾驶员对GRIP信息中出现红色特别敏感.此外,驾驶员的学历、年行驶公里数等个体属性也是影响驾驶员路径选择行为的因素.

This paper examines the effect of Graphical Route Information Panel （GRIP） on drivers＇ route choice behavior. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect data on drivers＇ choice between two alternative routes with six hypothetical the GRIP messages. A binary discrete choice model is developed to quantify choices between two alternative routes. The GRIP messages are measured by color and the distance between the congested site and the detour point. The GRIP in this survey is a real-world one upstream of west-bound Yan＇ an Elevated Road in Shanghai, China. The SP survey contains six travel scenarios, and each of which includes two alternative routes between the origin and destination. The collected data in the SP survey are used to estimate the binary Logit model by SPSS. Main findings are obtained as that GRIP information has significant impacts on drivers＇ behavior; different GRIP messages have different effects on route choice decision, especially when red color exists. The social-eeon6mical attributes such as education background, annual travelled distance are also elements that influence route choice.