货币政策对一、二线城市房地产价格变动影响的比较分析——基于北京、石家庄两地数据的VAR模型实证分析

The Analysis of Monetary Policy's Affections on First-and Second-tier Cities' Real Estate Markets

通过建立VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数并进行方差分解探究货币供应量变化与利率变化对房地产价格变化的动态影响。结果显示:从长期来看,货币供应量的增加会导致房地产价格上涨,贷款利率的增加会导致房地产价格的下降。同样的货币政策在二线城市造成的房地产价格波动更大。货币政策对房地产价格变动的贡献不大,并且呈现出一线城市货币供给量因素贡献率大,而二线城市贷款利率因素贡献率大。

By building the VAR model, the author uses impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the dynamic affection of the changes of money supply and interest rate on the price of real estate market. The result of the demonstration shows in the long run, the increase of money supply will increase the real estate price, and the increase of interest rate will reduce the price. Furthermore, same monetary policy will make a larger affection on second-tier city＇s market. The contribution of the money policy on the real estate price is not large. In the first-tier city, the main factor is money supply, while in the second-tier city is interest rate.