实证分析二氧化碳排放量主要影响因素

An Empirical Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions

能源是经济与社会发展的基本动力,但能源燃烧排放二氧化碳所引起的地球温暖化和气候变化更危及人类的生存。采用1990—2009年煤炭、石油、天然气消费结构数据,电力生产系数,道琼斯工业指数,城镇人口数,国内生产总值及二氧化碳排放量等统计数据进行灰色关联分析和协整检验;反映二氧化碳排放量与城镇人口数,国内生产总值,煤炭、石油、天然气消费结构,电力生产系数之间的规律性变化,从而突出协整检验的优越性。结果表明:城镇人口数,国内生产总值,煤炭、天然气消费结构,电力生产系数是二氧化碳排放量的主要影响因素;道琼斯工业指数、石油消费结构是次要影响因素。

Energy is the basic motive force of economic and social development, but energy consumption is the main factor that causes environmental pollution. Global warming and climate change caused by Energy combustion emissions of CO2 is endangering the survival of mankind. This paper adopts the method of grey relational analysis and eointegration test using the related statistical data of 1990-2009 coal, oil natural gas consumption structure, electric power production coefficient, the Dow Jones industrial index, urban population, GDP and carbon dioxide emissions, reflecting the regular changes between carbon dioxide emissions and town population, GDP, coal, oil,natural gas consumption structure and electric power production coefficient, giving prominence to cointegration test superiority. The results show that town population, GDP, coal, natural gas consumption structure and electric power production coefficient are the main influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions. The Dow Jones industrial index, oil consumption structure are secondary influencing factors.