区位优势及双边贸易—文化—政治关联度与中国对外直接投资——基于引力模型与流量面板数据的实证分析

Location Advantage,Bilateral Trade-Cultural-Political Linkages and Chinese ODI

本文选取1995～2010年的流量面板数据,以引力模型为实证基础,采用随机效应FGLS估计了东道国的区位优势以及双边贸易—文化—政治关联度等因素对中国对外直接投资流量和存量的影响力。我们得出了如下的结论:第一,度量东道国区位优势的相对市场规模和自然资源禀赋同其所接受的中国投资的规模成正比并且均有较高的统计显著性。第二,与东道国的双边贸易—文化—政治关联度强烈地影响了中国对外直接投资,即两国的贸易依存度越大、文化距离越小以及政治关系越好,则中国对该国的投资越多。第三,关于东道国汇率政策、货币政策与投资政策的理论假说6至假说9均没有得到经验数据的有力支撑。

This paper investigates the impact of the location advantage of host countries and bilateral trade - culture - political linkages on Chinese outward direct investment （ODI）. With national level data from 1995 to 2010, We test our 9 Hypotheses in a gravity equation using various econometric techniques such as FGLS with random effect and two - stage least squares. We find the following consistent results：firstly , there is a positive relationship between Chinese ODI and host＇s location advantage which is measure by relative market scale and nature resource endowment. This shows foreign - market - seeking and resource - seeking FDI has rapidly grown after the entry of WTO ; Secondly , Bilateral trade - culture - political linkages strongly influence on Chinese ODI. This implies Non - economic factors play important role in Chinese ODI. They can explain the scale effect rather than quality effect of Chinese ODI. thirdly, Hypothesis 6 - 9 are refused by national level data. This implies host＇s foreign exchange police and monetary policy have not played key role in Chinese ODI decision. So it is a main way to improve the quality of Chinese ODI to assess and predict the national economic and institutional risk.