混凝土坝变形组合预报模型的蛙跳建模方法

Concrete dam deformation forecasting with combined model based on modeling method in shuffled frog leaping algorithm

混凝土坝变形的影响因素多而复杂,监测数据包含大量的不确定性信息,因此依据多种建模方法建立的各单一模型的预报效果各不相同.组合模型能够弥补单一模型的局限性,如何在建模过程中使权重系数实时反映单一模型对监测信息的变化,是组合模型建模的关键.从优化极值角度考虑各单一模型中未知量与权重系数之间的相互性,利用蛙跳算法(SFLA)的分布式全局优化性能同步确定其值,提出相应的蛙跳优化建模方法.混凝土坝变形长期监测资料的应用表明,该方法具有良好的预报效果,简化了组合模型的确定过程,提高了模型的预报能力,为混凝土坝变形预报分析提供了新的计算方法。

The influence factors of concrete dam deformation are complex, and monitoring data contain a lot of uncertain information, so forecasting models with different modeling methods have various prediction effects. In view of this situation, a combined forecasting model can make up the limitation of a single model. In the modeling process, how weights could reflect the changes of monitoring information in real-time will be the key to the modeling method for combination mode. According to the optimum theory, considering the interaction between unknown quantities and weight coefficients of the individual model, by use of the distributed global optimization ability of shuffled frog leaping algorithm （SFLA）, an optimal modeling method with SFLA is established. Long-term monitoring data of concrete dam deformation indicate that this method has good forecasting effect, simplifis the modeling style of a combined model with variable weights, improves long-term forecasting ability of the model, and provides a new approach to the analysis of concrete dam deformation.