航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型

Collision Risk Model around Intersection of Airways

为研究航路交叉点附近两飞机之间标称距离随时间变化导致的碰撞风险,引入到达时间间隔变量,建立了航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型,提出了一种航路交叉点处标称距离随时间变化的碰撞风险估计方法.算例结果表明:当航路含有一个交叉点时碰撞风险数增加了1.147×10-7;碰撞风险随航迹夹角的增加先逐渐减小,然后逐渐增加,3种不同速度组合的碰撞风险均在航迹夹角区间(70°,75°)内达到极小值.利用该模型能够计算航路因含有交叉点而增加的碰撞风险,并能分析航迹夹角对碰撞风险的影响.

In order to estimate the collision risk caused by variable nominal separation when two aircraft on intersecting airways are flying around the intersection, a collision risk model around the airway intersection was proposed by introducing a variable of arrival time interval. A method was given to estimate the collision risk around the intersection where the nominal separation changes with time. The results of a case study show the number of increased collision risk is 1. 147 × 10 -7 when aircraft are flying on airways with one intersection; as the angle between flight paths increases, the collision risk decreases gradually at first, and then increases slowly; for three different combinations of speeds, the minimal values of the collision risk are all achieved in the interval （70°, 75°） of angle between flight paths. The proposed collision risk model can be used to calculate the increased collision risk caused by airway intersections and analyze the influence of the angle between flight paths on the collision risk.