我国通货膨胀产生的内在逻辑与治理政策建议——基于经济结构失衡的视角

On the Internal Logic of Inflation in China and its Control Policy and Suggestion——Based on the Perspective of Economic Structural Imbalances

稳定物价水平,抑制通货膨胀一直是我国政府近年来制定经济政策的一个重要目标。针对近年来我国通货膨胀为"输入型"的观点,本文提出不同观点,认为我国通货膨胀主要由经济结构失衡所致,即为追求经济发展速度,政府主导的投资驱动型和出口导向型经济一方面导致资源错配、效率不高,供给不足,另一方面导致外汇剧增和货币流动性过剩,需求面宽松。另通过CPI、投资等变量建立实证模型,验证了投资驱动型和出口导向型的经济结构失衡是导致我国通货膨胀的主要原因,并就此提出若干宏观调控的建议。

Stabilizing price level and curbing inflation is always an important goal for our govern ment to make economic policy in recent years. As for the view that inflation is import--oriented in recent years, in this paper, we put forward different views that the inflation is mainly caused by e- conomic structural imbalance, that is to say, in order to pursue economic development speed, the investment--driven and export-oriented economy led by the government on one hand causes the mis- taken allocation of resources, low efficiency and shortened supply, on the other hand, causes the sharp increase in foreign exchange, excess liquidity of currency and easing of demand. Moreover, by building an empirical model with variables such as CPI and investment, we demonstrate that the investment-driven and export-oriented economic structural imbalance is the main reason for inflation. Finally, propose the recommendations on macro-control.