房地产价格波动的影响因素研究——基于中国30个省市的面板数据模型

Factor Analysis on China’s Real Estate Price:an Empirical Research of Panel Data

利用1999年～2011年全国30个省份的面板数据,对影响我国房地产价格波动的因素进行了分析。实证结果显示,房地产价格波动的主要影响因素为居民收入水平、消费者预期、土地价格及实际利率水平,而城市人口密度、房屋竣工面积及居民消费价格指数对房地产价格的影响不显著。在对实证结果进行分析的基础上,提出了相关政策建议。

This paper conducts a factor analysis on china’s real estate price by using panel data of 30 provinces during 1999—2011.The empirical results show that,disposable income of residents,consumer expectations,land prices and real interest rates are major impetuses to boot housing prices.In contrast,city population density,completion of the housing area and the CPI do not have a statistically significant impact.Based on the empirical results,corresponding policy suggestions regarding price regulation have been made.