出口贸易与物价水平关系实证研究——基于中国省级面板数据

The Relationship between Export and Price Level:an Empirical Study Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

出口贸易会通过货币供给传导、总需求-总供给传导和价格传递效应等三种途径对国内物价水平产生影响。通过采用1989年～2010年中国省级面板数据对出口贸易与物价水平之间的关系进行实证研究,并对东中西部地区进行比较分析,结果表明:中国当前出口贸易的迅速发展对国内物价上涨形成了压力;东部地区因吸引劳动力资源流入、内需相对不足等原因导致出口贸易对物价波动的影响并不明显;西部地区出口贸易导致总需求扩大,对物价波动具有显著影响;中部地区因资源过度开发使得出口贸易对物价波动影响最大。

Through ways of money supply,aggregate demand-aggregate supply conduction and price pass-through effect export trade have an impact on the domestic price level.By using China’s 1989-2010 provincial panel data,this paper does empirical research on the relationship between export and price level,and a comparative analysis of China’s three regions shows that the rapid development of China’s current export trade causes domestic inflation pressure;the impact is insignificant in the eastern regions due to attractions to labor resources and the relative insufficient domestic demand;western regions’ export trade leads to the expansion of aggregate demand,and then has a significant impact on prices;central region export trade shows the greatest impact on the price level due to the over-exploitation of resources.