江川站近50a观测要素变化与探测环境变化浅析

Changes of observed elements and detected environmental in recent 50 years in Jiangchuan

基于江川1961—2010年的观测资料,利用滑动平均、趋势分析以及用CORREL函数统计相关系数等方法,对气温、降水量等观测要素的年际和季节变化进行分析,探讨了江川气候变化与探测环境变化的相关性。结果表明:①研究时段内江川年与四季平均气温均呈上升趋势,冬季增温显著,春季增温最小,夏季、秋季增温与年相近;地温变化亦呈上升趋势,增幅比气温大,其中0 cm增温最大,20 cm增温最小;年平均气温在1998年出现了明显的突变,其后出现了一个显著的增暖期,20世纪末以来的增温非常显著,是近50 a以来的高温期。②江川年降水量呈减少趋势,近10 a的减少趋势明显,干季降水量减少微弱,主要是雨季降水量减少。③20世纪90年代末以来的气候变化与观测环境变化息息相关,对应着江川城市建设的发展变化。

Based on the observation data of Jiangchuan from 1961 to 2010, using moving average, trend analysis and the use of CORREL function of the statistical correlation coefficient method, temperature, precipitation observation element interannual and seasonal change to undertake an analysis, discussed Jiangchuan to climate change and environmental changes in the correlation detection. The results showed that： ①study sessions in Neijiang in years and seasons of average temperatures are on the rise, the winter temperature increase significantly, the spring tempera- ture minimum, summer, autumn temperature increasing with years of similar; temperature changes also assumes the trend of escalation, than the increase in temperature, the Ocm warming maximum 20cm temperature increase, the annual average temperature; in 1998 appeared apparent mutation, later appeared in a significant warming period,since the end of the twentieth Century warming is very significant, is nearly 50 years since the high temperature period. The annual precipitation in Jiangchuan is decreasing, nearly 10 years to decrease obviously, the dry season rainfall decrease slightly, mainly is the rainy season precipitation. ③ since the late nineteen ninties of climate change and environmental change is closely related to observation, corresponding to the development of Jiangchuan city changes.