我国车险市场承保周期的实证研究——费率管制与市场准入限制的影响

Study on Underwriting Cycles of China’s Auto-insurance Market: The Effect of Premium Controls and Market Entrance Restrictions

对车险承保周期的研究,传统上是从"价"的角度着手,以单位价格(保费/赔付额)和承保利润率为指标,来考察承保周期的波动特征。然而,我国车险市场中存在两个特殊的局限条件:费率管制和市场准入限制。费率管制的存在,使保费收入不能反映车险业务的真实情况,从而以保费为基础的传统研究指标也不能用于对我国车险市场的研究。基于此,文章转换分析的角度,从"量"入手,以赔付额来描述车险市场的承保周期。文章发现,我国车险市场存在承保周期,周期平均长度为5.33年,并且市场准入限制是影响车险承保周期的重要原因。

Studies on the underwriting cycles of auto-insurance markets usually focuses on how prices （premium） fluctuate through the hard and soft markets. The most frequently used indicators are unit price, i.e. premium to claims payout, and underwriting profits. When it comes to China＇s auto-insurance market, these two indicators are no longer applicable because this market is heavily regulated. Price controls and market entrance restrictions are the most relevant two. Under these regulations, premium revenue becomes an inappropriate measure for China＇s auto-insurance business. Thus any indicator which is based on premium revenue would be inappropriate either. This paper takes a new approach that instead of studying the price track during the ups and downs, the claims payout which is a measure of the scale of the market is investigated. This paper finds that Chiua＇s auto-insurance market does go up and down regularly with an average of 5.33 years and the market entrance restriction is a main cause to the underwriting cycles in this market.