内蒙古东部玉米主产区气候条件的变化及其对玉米生产的影响

Climate Changes in the Main Corn Production Regions in Eastern Inner Mongolia

内蒙古东部4盟市是内蒙古主要的玉米种植区,通过分析该区域1951～2010年温度、降水和气候生产力的变化,评价了气候变化对玉米生产的影响.研究表明:从1951年到2010年,区域内6个站点的温度均呈显著上升趋势,并且发生了温度突变;降水量变化剧烈,但没有明显的变化趋势;气候生产力的变化表明降水量是玉米生产的主要限制因素,尤其是温暖区和温热区;受气候变化的影响,温凉区具有成为内蒙古玉米稳产区的潜力.气候生产力与内蒙古玉米单产的相关分析表明,近些年来玉米单产停滞的主要限制因素是气候,因此气候资源应纳入影响粮食安全的重要因素范围内.

Temperature,precipitation,and climatic productivity expressed by Thornthwaite Memorial model in six main corn production regions in eastern Inner Mongolia in the last 60 years were analyzed to assess the potential impacts of climate change on corn production. Temperature in Inner Mongolia from 1951 to 2010 had been increasing; abrupt changes occurred at all the six stations. Precipitation did not show significant trend, but with dramatic fluctuations. Changes in climatic productivity manifested that precipitation was the main constraint in Inner Mongolia, especially in warm and hot temperate corn production zones. In response to climate change, cool temperate zone in Inner Mongolia has the potential to become the stable corn production region in the future. Comparison and correlation analysis between climatic productivity and unit yield showed that the standstill stage in maize production in Inner Mongolia might be constrained by meteorological factors,as should be a new concern about local food security in the future.