核电厂地震PSA方法初探

Preliminary Research on Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment

本文首先参考Cornell提出的地震危险性概率分析（PSHA）方法计算了矩形震源对电厂的影响，其次对Ziong核电厂的地震PSA分析过程进行了技术复现和结果对比，利用蒙特卡罗方法计算了电厂易损度／脆弱性均值曲线，并与Zion电厂采用离散概率分布方法得到的曲线进行了对比．为地震PSA定量化方法的选取提供了参考见解。最后给出了地震PSA技术应用建议。

The effect of rectangular seismic source on the plant is evaluated in this paper using prob- abilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA） developed by Cornell. The seismic probabilistic safety assessment （SPSA） on the Zion Nuclear Power Plant is then performed, with results compared to the benchmark. The plant fragility mean curve is obtained using the Monte Carlo （MC） method, with results one that calculated by the discrete probabilistic distribution （DPD） method. practical application of SPSA is presented in this paper.